Fall 2020 Mafia - Game Thread

[Tanuki]

If there's only 2 mafia, then we would be perfectly ok with a mislynch.

This is a pretty big if, though. It’s already a fifty fifty shot between me and Dawning. If we might have two or three, that leaves us at a one fourth chance we don’t instantly lose tonight.

And that’s still based on the assumption town can’t have two roleblockers. Assuming every possibility is a pure 1/2 either or for the sake of simplicity, we’re banking on there only being two mafia, that there can’t be two town roleblockers, and then we’re deciding between the two. That’s barely more than a 12% chance that, by voting me or Dawning, we instantly lose.

We need to abstain for tonight. It’s the only way numbers go in our favor. Between two roleblockers (or even one, if one of us is mafia), two doctors, and two bulletproof claims, we have very good odds of keeping everyone safe. The blockers can go for potential murders, the healers can go for likely murder targets, and our info roles can search for any funny business.

We do not need to kill today, and we shouldn’t because the risk is instant game over.

 

[Shiny Phantump]

On the other hand, if we abstain and the mafia kills someone, we’ll lose as soon as we mislynch, without the chance to soave ourselves with a roleblocker or healer.

Assuming the mafia wins at 50/50, ‘cause otherwise the game could come down to a 50/50 split vote.

 

[Tanuki]

[[Never’d Desper let any’ne stuff his hide into a continental suit, livin’re dead. Threads weren’t nothin’ more’n what they c’ld do. His hat kept the sun off, ‘n’ his ‘kerchief kept dust out. Suits didn’t do nothin’ but hide cards ‘r show ‘em off.

Most ‘is best man could talk ‘m into was a shiny pair o’ new boots with sparklin’ spurs. Nary a sparkle could math th’one ‘n ‘is eyes, though. Today was his—nah—their day, ‘n’ he couldn’t be happier.

“Rest ‘ my ride’s start‘n’ t’day, Youngin’,” he grinned. Chibi di’n’t move a muscle. Di’n’t have one. Best man Desper c’ld get on such short notice. The resemblance w’s cleaner’n a church on Chritmas Eve, like Chibi’d gone some’re else’n left ‘is stone body b’hind.

“Best get to it, Desper said. Inch by inch, Desper dragged ‘is best man out his saloon ‘f a home ‘n’ brought ‘mself to th’alter. Ashwood’d decided on the decor, ‘n’ Desper marveled at it while he’n’ Chibi took their places, giddier’n a rooster in a chicken coop.]]

 

[Tanuki]

if we abstain and the mafia kills someone, we’ll lose as soon as we mislynch, without the chance to soave ourselves with a roleblocker or healer.

If we abstain and the mafia kills someone, we’ll know exactly who did it. If I block Perse and DW blocks you, it has to be either Espy, Wind, or Waffle. It’s a win/win scenario for town.

 

[Tanuki]

I will note my bias at this point here. I actually think there are two town roleblockers. I know it’s incredibly unlikely, but barring a few moves I don’t quite understand, I think DW has been remarkably pro-town.

Their plays, strategies, explanations all read as pretty town. I believe the same of myself, but of course that’s up to y’all. We’ve both done a lot for the town, and it’s hard to see mafia motivations in most of our posts and actions.

I don’t think that DW is necessarily mafia if I flip town, and of course I believe the opposite. This all feels like a huge red herring the mafia’s passively letting go on to kill off two innocents for free and secure the game. That no counter movement started makes it feel even moreso.

If me or DW were mafia, supporting either of us makes less sense than trying to fake a third suspect because, no matter who the town lynches, they’d lynch the other right after. If we really had our options down to two, wouldn’t the mafia try to fight that?

The only angle I can kinda see this from is with Phan. Unfortunately, it’s DW that put her in the spotlight. Phan very much seemed like the killer with DW’s block night one, and the pattern nearly continued last night with DW trying to block Phan, but my block proved that Phan at least didn’t try to kill anyone last night.

So, unfortunately, the only conspiracy I can really see still implicates DW. The most likely perpetrators would be DW with blocking Phan, and Perse with her continued attempts to malign me, presumably so DW doesn’t get lynched.

But DW doesn’t have to have been in on the plan. Blocking Phan made perfect sense from a town perspective, and in fact even more so than from a mafia perspective. Mafia!DW would’ve not blocked Phan, try to get someone killed, and then point out it had to be Phan since she wasn’t blocked.

In other words, DW blocking Phan is the same plan simply running its course naturally. Mafia doesn’t need mafia to do all their bidding. A lot of their power comes from misguided town efforts.

By establishing, with no alternative, that either I or DW are mafia, we are forced to clear our names at the expense of the other or someone else. Mafia counted on DW acting in the town’s best interest to set the stage for the next three mislynches that secure the game for them. DW, Phan, and I, in any order are almost guaranteed to get lynched.

But then there’s Persephone. Given people already suspected her, she would’ve been an easy scapegoat to frame a (lack of) murders on her. The problem is, that assumes DW blocked Phan for nefarious purposes night one instead of it being at most a lucky/educated guess. They couldn’t choose who to frame because they couldn’t dictate DW’s night action.

Either a doctor saved someone night one, and Mafia capitalized on the claim drama between me and DW by pure dumb luck, or they for some reason decided not to kill night one.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t think Espy performed a night action on the first night because she missed her chance.

I think Espy is the killer, she missed her first chance by either not being here or assuming her team could do it for her, and the roleblock rigamarole was just plain dumb luck.

 

[Tanuki]

If we go through with my plan, we can prove that I, DW, and Phan are all innocent at the cost of nobody’s life. Nobody has to get mislynched. Nobody has to get murdered. If the mafia murder while I’m blocking Perse and DE blocks Phan, they have no one left to hide behind.

With my plan, the mafia both can’t and has to kill tonight. It guarantees us the most safety. If you truly think Phan, Perse, DW and I are mafia, this is a chance to prove it. If no one dies, we vote Perse and then Phan if Perse flips mafia. That’s as close as you can get to 100% certain votes in this game, and it doesn’t cost anyone’s life.

We can win this game without spilling a single drop of innocent blood. With the info roles, no suspected parties have room to go off course. I’ll restate my plan so you don’t have to scroll back.
1) Abstain tonight’s vote
2) DW and I block Phan and Perse respectively.
If no one dies
3) Lynch Perse, then Phan if Perse flips mafia, then DW and me. Unless there are three mafia and both roleblockers are town, town wins. Even if both roleblockers are town and there are three mafia, by the time we learn that, there will only be one mafia left. Even if they get a kill every single night, it would be three town to one mafia. We win.
If Someone Dies
3) DW, Phan, Perse, and I are townlocked. With Equita, that’s five townlocks out of eight. Assuming there are three mafia, we have our three. We win.

 

[Tanuki]

I feel like I’ve been kind of dominating this thread post-number wise. Does, like, anyone have anything to say? At least wanna rp the wedding? Come on, don’t let the game die here. We’re almost past last year’s page count!

 

[windskull]

I am just very tired today. Will try to be more active tomorrow before EoD

 

[windskull]

1) Abstain tonight’s vote
2) DW and I block Phan and Perse respectively.
If no one dies
3) Lynch Perse, then Phan if Perse flips mafia, then DW and me. Unless there are three mafia and both roleblockers are town, town wins. Even if both roleblockers are town and there are three mafia, by the time we learn that, there will only be one mafia left. Even if they get a kill every single night, it would be three town to one mafia. We win.
If Someone Dies
3) DW, Phan, Perse, and I are townlocked. With Equita, that’s five townlocks out of eight. Assuming there are three mafia, we have our three. We win.

I do have one thing to say, and I think Phant kind of touched on it earlier. I'm... not sure this will work? Let's say the mafia is some number of myself, Esp, and Waffle. All we would have to do in this setup is not kill and then the town would just lynch each other anyways? What's your backup if you, say, lynched Perse if she flipped town? Would you still Lynch phant? Would you lynch whoever supposedly blocked her? I recognize your concerns, but I'm not certain they'll actually work in practice.

 

[windskull]

I hope Equita comes on before EoD, too. Planning for this day has felt really disjointed tbh but I think it's just been a busy weekend.

 

[Tanuki]

What's your backup if you, say, lynched Perse if she flipped town?

That’s where the info roles come in. We could reasonably assume roleblocker’s innocence at that point since we’d cooperated with both town and each other so much at that point that either we’re good, or we would’ve shown our true colors by then.

We would block who we most reasonably thought was the killer, and with at least one doctor, that’s pretty good coverage against a nightkill.

This is the worst case scenario of the plan, which is actually why I think it’s so good. It requires mafia to avoid a nightkill for one mislynch. We still end up losing at most one town, but the odds of it are extremely low.

For instance, under these circumstances, I doubt Perse would flip Town. We can be relatively sure we will eliminate at least one scum here. I hate to say it, but one scum for one town is a good trade. It’s a bit gross and callous, but town can win purely with numbers.

 

[Tanuki]

So, unfortunately, the only conspiracy I can really see still implicates DW. The most likely perpetrators would be DW with blocking Phan, and Perse with her continued attempts to malign me, presumably so DW doesn’t get lynched.

But DW doesn’t have to have been in on the plan. Blocking Phan made perfect sense from a town perspective, and in fact even more so than from a mafia perspective. Mafia!DW would’ve not blocked Phan, try to get someone killed, and then point out it had to be Phan since she wasn’t blocked.

In other words, DW blocking Phan is the same plan simply running its course naturally. Mafia doesn’t need mafia to do all their bidding. A lot of their power comes from misguided town efforts.

Rereading this, I have to admit that it's a large stretch to believe so many of DW's actions simply happened to benefit the mafia. While my blocks haven't been all that effective one way or the other, DW's have been incredibly convenient for mafia. I think I was able at the time to overlook this because my mind is thinking that whether or not she flips town doesn't affect my flip, and it's then assuming the opposite for me. No brain is perfect, I suppose.

 

[Starlight Aurate]

A reminder that 12 hours remain in Day 3. Current vote:

1 skip: Tanuki
1 Persephone: Equitia
2DawningWinds: Shiny Phantump, windskull
1 Tanuki: Persephone
Not voting: SparklingEspeon, Waffle, DawningWinds

 

[Equitial]

Tanuki

We need to abstain for tonight

Tanuki... I am internally screaming at this proposition. My brain is on fire. I feel my sanity beginning to crack. No.

If they actually somehow decided just not to kill someone last night, what had to have stopped them before was DW roleblocking Phant. So, DW should tonight block Phant once more.

No. Do not block Phant. Literally the only possible way in which Phant could be the mafia killer is if both Waffle is the Mafia roleblocker and you lied about DW last night. How can DW have blocked Phant if you blocked them last night? Do you any explanation for this?

Nobody has any absolutely damning mafia evidence, the closest being me and DW are both roleblockers and Perse’s confusing as hell role.

We're basically never going to have 100% completely damning evidence that someone is scum. Even if the mafia straight out confesses, see what happened last night. The "closest" we have to damning evidence is pretty flipping damning. I literally do not know what you would need to feel confident to lynch someone. Even your proposed plan...

If I block Perse and DW blocks you, it has to be either Espy, Wind, or Waffle. It’s a win/win scenario for town.

If Someone Dies
3) DW, Phan, Perse, and I are townlocked. With Equita, that’s five townlocks out of eight. Assuming there are three mafia, we have our three. We win.

I literally have no idea why you would think this would work. The Mafia lies, remember? If DW is mafia, they could a) be the mafia killer and take someone out tonight or b) roleblock you, allowing their mafia partner of Perse to attempt a kill. They would report back as having blocked Phan, and it's only by grace of our info-roles (whom could be killed) that we figure our way out of this mess. If you're Mafia, Perse could be the killer, and you just roleblock a healer or whoever in the hopes of getting someone actually killed tonight. This plan will not work.

Tanuki, if you give me two players, I could probably cobble together a crackpot theory on how they're both mafia cleverly pulling the wool through everybody's eyes through a series of unlikely gambits, but mafia isn't about crackpot theories. Occam's razor! If we see a player pulling confusing roleclaims and acting generally scummy, they're probably mafia. You acted like this last game so I know this is within the realm of townie!Tanuki behavior, but honestly it's like you're trying to sow confusion and sabotage the town. I really think you don't understand how Mafia works.

If you're not feeling DW, vote Persephone. Depending on who gets lynched, block the remaining of the two tonight. You're very likely to get the killer by that method, since killing power will transfer if the first one dies. It's very possible Mafia won't manage a nightkill this game (which is why I thought town roleblockers would be OP, but I digress).

 

[Equitial]

Persephone

I do not believe her roleclaim, basically. First, here's what Tanuki said:

So, the first independent role introduced to TR is a hybrid of a hybrid. It seems way too complicated to be introductory

Technically I think Mia in the first-anniversary game was an independent before she was recruited (???), but yeah, I don't believe something this out-there is in this game. (I recognize I said the same thing about townie roleblockers). Persephone doesn't want to be lynched, therefore during the night phase she thought up a story that had a chance of preventing that. It's you would expect her to do. In the interest of letting her defend herself:

If you read my rare flavor posts, I've been hinting at this for a while.

Show us the breadcrumbs, I guess.

And since I'm pseudo-bulletproof, I have my doubts about Phan as well.

I am very willing to believe Phan is actually Bulletproof, considering what I read from them last night, and

Anyway, Fusion bit it. I suspected at the time and was informed afterwards that he was vigilante.

I don't think Fusion was a vig. Remember, something had to have stopped the nightkill N1. I'm 99.999% sure the mafia attempted. Even if the Mafia killer was Waffle, all their partner(s) would have needed to do was send Waffle a DM telling them to target [townie]. They wouldn't have had to read the thread to send Starlight their partner's choice.

I feel like the three possibilities are 1) Phantump didn't get informed because DW roleblocked them, 2) Fuse blocked the kill somehow who knows, or 3) DW is telling the truth and they stopped it (but DW feels incredibly scummy to me)

These were my theories Day 2. Phantump can't be the mafia killer, so cross that off the list. I don't remember if Phantump asked, but I suppose @Shiny Phantump ask Starlight if you're informed if you get hit if you're also roleblocked. If that's not the case though, then Fusion must have done something to stop the kill. If Fusion did something to stop the kill, then he couldn't have been vig and Perse's roleclaim doesn't add up.


Anyway, here are my current reads:

100% certain is innocent:
Equitia (Ashwood) - specific kind of tracker

Very certain are not fakeclaiming and thus prob innocent (order in confidence of innocence):
windskull (Shimmer) - watcher (very confident in Windskull)
Waffle (Luna) - doctor
Shiny Phantump (Salac) - bulletproof

Very certain not fakeclaiming, likely innocent but ahhhh
Tanuki (Desper) - roleblocker (Put in above category above Windskull if DW is lynched and flips mafia)

Neutral
SparklingEspeon (Detective Looker) - seraph knight

Scum
DawningWinds (Iona) - roleblocker (maybe fakeclaiming role)
Persephone (Kekoa) - indep (fakeclaiming role)

I'm still going for lynching Persephone today, but DW is also a fair choice.

 

[Tanuki]

Tanuki... I am internally screaming at this proposition. My brain is on fire. I feel my sanity beginning to crack. No.

Darling, this is no way to treat your husband on our wedding day.

 

[Equitial]

[[
In their tent, Ashwood deliberated on what they would wear this day on which they would finally be wed. Clothes had appeared suddenly in their tent -- a gift from Palkia, Ashwood assumed. The space dragon had given Ashwood a variety of options in a number of styles, ranging from traditionally masculine to traditionally feminine with plenty of in-between. That was pretty based of Palkia. Palkia seemed like a cool dude; Ashwood approved.

Ashwood briefly considered wearing a full traditional dress, thinking of their parents; maybe wearing a dress would make up for Ashwood marrying a sapient electric rat. But nah, too much. Instead, they decided on a lacy white shirt with dress pants. A cape came included with this outfit, which was cool. If Ashwood was getting married, they would definitely do so in a cape.

They studied themself in the mirror, poking at their hair. They had definitely gone crazy. Their sanity probably cracked when they got Enigma killed, with the guilt and all. Well, no, it must have cracked before that. They were at a haunted house doing irl-Among Us with fucking Pokemon, after all. Ashwood was definitely, totally insane. Even disregarding the death-game with cartoon characters, they were getting married. Fucking married. The hell?

But Desper... Ashwood couldn't precisely say what it was about that Raichu. Maybe it was the accent... actually, it was definitely the accent. No matter the case, though, whenever Ashwood thought about him, they felt... at peace. At home. They disagreed sometimes with Desper, but they knew he would never hurt them. Ashwood was definitely having some sort of psychotic break, but well. Maybe it was worth going crazy to be with that cowboy.

So, what was the gender-neutral word for bride/groom? Ashwood had never thought they would get married, so they hadn't considered terms. Uh... broom? Broom sounded funny. Yeah, they would go with that.

They stepped outside, ready to sweep their nearlywed off his feet.
]]

Darling, this is no way to treat your husband on our wedding day.

If you would just vote for someone, I wouldn't have to be like this. Honey.

 

[Shiny Phantump]

Tanuki, I appreciate the commitment to pacifism, but we have multiple virtually guaranteed scums and we need to kill one. (I’m sticking with DW because I still believe the information her death will give us will make future discussions much easier, whereas Persephone doesn’t tell us much, but honestly kill Perse if you want, as long as it’s someone.)

 

[Tanuki]

If DW is mafia, they could a) be the mafia killer and take someone out tonight or b) roleblock you, allowing their mafia partner of Perse to attempt a kill. They would report back as having blocked Phan, and it's only by grace of our info-roles (whom could be killed) that we figure our way out of this mess. If you're Mafia, Perse could be the killer, and you just roleblock a healer or whoever in the hopes of getting someone actually killed tonight. This plan will not work.

This is why the inforoles are so important here! Y’all can make sure neither I nor DW misbehave. The risk of Wind seeing me interact with someone other than Perse, or you seeing either of us unsuccessful or even inactive would be instant conviction.

It would cost a life at night if our doctor(s) fail(s), but it would narrow down the suspects to two or three. No matter what goes wrong, if we go with this plan, it tells us who the mafia is.

Literally the only possible way in which Phant could be the mafia killer is if both Waffle is the Mafia roleblocker and you lied about DW last night. How can DW have blocked Phant if you blocked them last night? Do you any explanation for this?

Well, yes. I know it’s unlikely, but it’s possible Phan decided not to kill last night to clear herself. In this case, she could easily predict town behaviors. You or Wind would obviously watch her to see if she interacted with anyone since she was claiming a passive role.

DW’s (admittedly strange, even if I can see the logic of it) block doesn’t even change anything, at least I don’t think. With you watching her, you would get the same result from a blocked inactive Phan and an unblocked inactive Phan. You can’t get an “unsuccessful” result from someone who doesn’t act.

It’s barely even a gamble. She knew she’d have eyes on her, or even assumed DW wouldn’t block her since... again, that was a really weird play, I hate to admit.

I think I’ll just come out and say I’m biased for DW because I don’t want my innocence tied to her flip. It’s just frustrating that there’s a 50/50 shot I’m instantly dead if she dies when it’s legitimately possible we’re both town. Hell, the mafia could kill either of us by lynching the other at night.

If they kill me, I flip innocent, DW must be scum. It’s ridiculous. It feels like how obviously terrible a move that would be for mafia!DW wouldn’t matter because everyone has it embedded in their heads that if one of us is innocent, the other is guilty.

If I’m being honest, I don’t want DW to be mafia. I’ve somewhat convinced myself she can’t be because I’m not. I’m only realizing this as I’m typing, actually. It wasn’t even a thought. When I think about all the things that simply don’t add up with her, I get an almost physical cognitive dissonance, which sounds kind of weird. My brain just won’t accept mafia!DW.

Did not think I’d be using metacognition in this game, but here we are I guess. I think I internalized the frustration of being helpless to how she flips and started projecting it onto her. I don’t know if I hate anything more than predetermined outcomes. I’ve been through a lot that I had no control over, where no one would listen to me, that I guess even in this pithy example, it set me off.

I’m not thinking clearly, I guess is the gist. I know there’s tons of evidence against Dawning, tons that I’ve pointed out even, but I just don’t want to see it.

I want my plan to work, but maybe it’s best if I just vote DW and get it over with.

Sorry that this got so emotional. This is completely inappropriate for the game, but I felt like I had to explain what went on in my head to suddenly flip so hard in favor of town!DW. I’m gonna take a bit off, but I’ll definitely get back in time to vote.

 

[Shiny Phantump]

The main issue with the abstain plan is that nobody will die at night either way.

If one of us is killer, nobody dies b/c roleblock.

If we’re innocent, they choose not to kill and laugh as you hand them another free mislynch.

That’s the problem: The plan only works if the Mafia politely decides to exonerate us because you asked them nicely.