[INNOCENTS WIN] First Anniversary Fanfic Mafia - Game Thread

[NonAnalogue]

-- Conversation initiated with WitchesBlue [FORTUNATA, FIAMETTA] --

[WB] oh for the love of
[WB] i went to go take a quick nap
[WB] rest the ol oculars a bit
[WB] i even set my status to afk
[WB] wait
[WB] shit

-- WitchesBlue has changed their username to WitchesBlue|AFK --

[WB|AFK] see
[WB|AFK] totally did that
[WB|AFK] you didnt see anything
[WB|AFK] anyway now that im awake

-- WitchesBlue|AFK has changed their username to WitchesBlue --

[WB] i go nap and everything goes to shit
[WB] what even is going on anymore
[WB] i read through the chatlogs like three times
[WB] and i think ive only got the barest grip of what happened
[WB] lemme run down what i get so far
[WB] ntairow claims to be a protector
[WB] the professor claims to be a swapper
[WB] espurr can see things
[WB] oh wait shit
[WB] *esp*urr like psychic
[WB] because seein
[WB] heyyyy
[WB] anyway desper ado claims to have inherited a protector role from chibi
[WB] and diyem is a
[WB] every other day vigilante
[WB] okay
[WB] so runnin through this heres what i think
[WB] of the people that claimed so far
[WB] nothing explicitly contradicts
[WB] assumin the mafia aimed at lauchzelot last night that all squares
[WB] but that doesnt necessarily mean that the mafia meant to aim at lauchzelot anyway
[WB] there coulda been another swapper in play and the mafia shot just got passed down the line
[WB] passin out eliminations like cheap cigars
[WB] only its the same cheap cigar gettin handed from one person to another
[WB] so i guess its more like a blunt
[WB] which means that
[WB] i guess i tentatively believe ntairow the professor and espurr
[WB] unless all three of them are in cahoots
[WB] which i guess is a possibility
[WB] aside from that i got no read on desper ado and diyem
[WB] like if someone were gonna contradict desper theyd be outin themselves as a healer
[WB] which i get why they wouldnt wanna do that right now
[WB] might as well save that one in their back pocket for later
[WB] and diyem
[WB] i just dunno
[WB] thats a weird ability
[WB] but weird ability doesnt necessarily mean guilty
[WB] so i think based on that
[WB] desper ados claim isnt as wild as it might look on the surface
[WB] just because anyone who counterclaims him would be putting a target on their back for the mafia
[WB] so
[WB] for the moment
[WB] until i hear anything more substantive

[WB] i vote for desper ado

[WB] but i may end up changin that later
[WB] hopefully things dont all explode again though

 

[kyeugh]

[[ Lauchs frowned, his gaze steely. “I hear your reasoning, strange device,” he said in the general direction of the phone. “I think your logic comes from a place of sincerity, but I must dispute it. For the true backup not to contradict the raichu’s claim would be foolishness. Perhaps doing so would paint a target on their back, true, but in so doing it would eliminate one of the ghouls among us. As a side note, if you believe Desper tells untruths, there’s no reason to believe Chibi was a healer, either.” He grunts. Time to deplete his leek stock again, he supposed. He procures one from his armor and crunches on it, then holds it as one might a cigar. “The raichu has provoked my suspicion with his ideas countless times, I admit, but I believe his claim is reliable for the time being. I find it hard to imagine the true backup would hold their tongue.” ]]

 

[Negrek]

@Negrek Elyvorg did an unvote against me, iirc. And some of those votes seem a little off. Didn't Tanuki target DW?

Yeah, I'm definitely on no-vote right now, though I do intend to pick someone to vote for once Sike's spoken up about this.

Fixed these, thanks.

 

[Persephone]

Changing my vote to Jail SikeSaner because no post yet after many calls and also I might not be able to change votes or make a later call out post until end of voting because, Y’know, it’s a Hallmark Holiday in the States.

 

[NonAnalogue]

-- Conversation initiated with WitchesBlue [FORTUNATA, FIAMETTA] --

[WB] okay so lauchzelot
[WB] i think that line of reasoning is valid
[WB] but the way i look at it is this
[WB] lets say for the sake of argument that chibi was in fact a healer
[WB] someone inherits it when chibi is eliminated
[WB] theyre now a healer
[WB] then desper ado claims that they took the healing ability
[WB] maybe the mafia had some kind of way to scope what ability chibi had
[WB] or something i dunno
[WB] but then if they counterclaim
[WB] its their word against desper ados
[WB] they stand a fifty fifty shot of coming out behind on that draw
[WB] and suddenly the town is down a healer
[WB] and sure desper ado would look suspicious if that happened that way
[WB] but the mafia woulda smoked out a healer and gotten rid of them
[WB] we dunno how many mafia there are
[WB] maybe they feel comfortable sacrificin one of their own to get rid of a protector
[WB] i know this sorta relies on a lotta what ifs
[WB] but so does pretty much everything else at this point

 

[windskull]

Alright, to start out, I'm going to retract my vote on Starlight. I still don't have a good read on her, but I at least think she's not the best person to target right now with everything that's come out. Maybe more information will come up later that will clear her, or else make her more sus. I dunno.

Now, as for everything else that came out, everyone has more or less argued the scenarios for dawningwinds and sike back and forth, but I didn't see anyone argue the outcomes (outcomes may not be the best word, let me explain)

If we shoot sike, and sike ends up being innocent/telling the truth
We lose a doctor. Possibly our only one, depending on how everyone's feeling about tanuki. Yes, he does have a decent chance of being the backup, but I'm just not sure it's a risk we should be willing to take

If we shoot dawningwinds, and she ends up being innocent
We end up losing a switcher. Which, while it can be useful, I feel like it's less useful than a doctor. Again, especially if sike ends up being the only doctor.

All that said, I'm going to tentatively vote jail dawningwinds, but if I'm missing something and there's some flaw in my logic, please tell me.

 

[windskull]

I should also add that I'm still not totally convinced of Namo's innocence, but like my feelings on Starlight, I don't think he's the best person to lynch right now. Again, like I mentioned last night, his roleclaim reminds me of Dragonfree's false claim from last year, but that's really not enough information to go off at this time. In my opinion, at least.

 

[kyeugh]

maybe they feel comfortable sacrificin one of their own to get rid of a protector

[[ “Hmmm.” He took another drag (monch) from his leek. “This is the biggest point in the raichu’s favor, I believe. Losing one of their own is not an equivalent trade for any one of our lives, from the perspective of the villains. Certainly not for a healer, whose ability—while useful—has little utility in exposing the wicked ones. The idea that they would make this unbalanced trade, or that the true backup would predict such, seems very unlikely to me.” ]]

 

[Dragonfree]

All right, just to start with, odd-night vigilante absolutely is a thing. You'd do that as GM if you don't want two deaths every night, which is very reasonable. In theory there could be an even-night vigilante too, but I find that vanishingly unlikely, both because two vigilantes is a lot and because then they'd also have to happen to have not fired N0.

Need to take a shower, but will be back later.

 

[kyeugh]

forgot to put some of this in the post, oops, but to summarize: my perspective is that if we lose a townie, it sucks but does yield information and doesn’t seriously harm our chances of victory at this point in the game. losing a mafia member significantly pushes them closer to a loss given their limited numbers, provides a wealth of information in rereading the mafia member’s exchanges after their death and searching for clues, and permanently sets the mafia’s win condition back by another kill. i don’t think that’s worth it for a single healer, and i think the odds of a theoretical backup keeping their mouth shut even though they have information that would expose a wolf because they’re making this assumption of the mafia is very unlikely. desper vote not so good on those grounds tbh. occam’s razor and whatnot.

 

[elyvorg]

[WB] so runnin through this heres what i think
[WB] of the people that claimed so far
[WB] nothing explicitly contradicts
[WB] assumin the mafia aimed at lauchzelot last night that all squares
[WB] but that doesnt necessarily mean that the mafia meant to aim at lauchzelot anyway
[WB] there coulda been another swapper in play and the mafia shot just got passed down the line
[WB] passin out eliminations like cheap cigars
[WB] only its the same cheap cigar gettin handed from one person to another
[WB] so i guess its more like a blunt
[WB] which means that
[WB] i guess i tentatively believe ntairow the professor and espurr

[["No!" Tefiren scurried along the ground to poke the talking glowing slate with his claws. In between arguing with the Raichu for not making any sense at all (in more ways than just how he talked), Tefiren had been thinking a lot about things since the small feline one had finally spoken up. (He'd also decided to just think more about the fiery one and his apparent tricks later. There was so much going on! It was exciting, but... tricky. Very tricky.)

"They can't all be telling the truth, unless something else also happened. If the big blue one and the small feline one both went near Chibi, the feline should have seen the blue one there, even if the swap happened and they were actually near the duck instead. That's what everyone's been saying.

"So either the feline of the blue one must be lying, unless someone stopped the blue one from doing anything at all last night."

He crept towards the big blue one, who seemed to be having a nap or something, and poked her with his claws, too. "Wake up. You can't go to sleep just when people think you might be one of Them. That's not fun at all. It's not a very clever way to get out of it, either."
]]

Again, I'll probably be barely out of bed when the day ends, so I think I'd best err on the side of caution here. (I'm neutral on day-extension. Do it if enough people need it, but as for me, I think I need to take a bit of a break from the thread until day 3.

I remembered Sike making this post and it occurs to me they might not even show in the thread before end of day even with the extension. That's fair enough when they weren't expecting to be on the chopping block at all, but we kinda need to hear from them now they've unexpectedly become a huge suspect. @Sike Saner , sorry to wake Ntairow up from her nap, but we need you in here or you might just get lynched without even defending yourself.

(And don't mind Tefiren; obviously I don't actually think you're avoiding the thread just to try and get out of this.)

[WB] lets say for the sake of argument that chibi was in fact a healer
[WB] someone inherits it when chibi is eliminated
[WB] theyre now a healer
[WB] then desper ado claims that they took the healing ability
[WB] maybe the mafia had some kind of way to scope what ability chibi had
[WB] or something i dunno
[WB] but then if they counterclaim
[WB] its their word against desper ados
[WB] they stand a fifty fifty shot of coming out behind on that draw
[WB] and suddenly the town is down a healer

[["No, that doesn't make sense either! If the Raichu is lying, we don't even know if Chibi's tricks really were protecting people. So if the Raichu is one of Them, how would They have known what Chibi's tricks were at all? They couldn't have done this just to try and get rid of someone with protecting tricks if They didn't even know. And the real person who learned Chibi's tricks could tell us the Raichu is lying without even needing to tell us what Chibi's tricks were anyway.

"The Raichu is stupid and doesn't make any sense, but this isn't a good reason to think he's one of Them."
]]

(I'm not sure how Fiametta is going to be able to tell who Tefiren's talking about when Tefiren still refuses to use anyone's names except Chibi's, but uhhhh handwave handwave look over there a distraction.)

(also, geez, Tefiren, I'm glad you've found your calling in this game's day phases by frustratedly pointing out why other people don't make sense so you can keep telling yourself you're better at this game than all of them.)

 

[elyvorg]

So here's the thing about Namo's odd-night vigilante claim and why it isn't as suspicious as Dave's 50%-effective deflector claim was last game.

Dave made that claim that back then in response to him being the only person seen near that night's victim by a watcher. The claim was his way of insisting "oh I was totally trying to protect him, but I guess it failed because it conveniently just does that half the time, and also the real killer was invisible or something???". The 50%-effective part was necessary to even make his claim work at all. (I'm honestly not sure why everyone in that game bought it for so long, when he'd have every single reason to be lying about it if he were mafia.)

But Diyem claiming to only be able to kill someone every other night isn't really necessary to save himself. He only claimed to prove he was useful at all, not because we had any particular incriminating evidence against him.

Hell, Diyem claiming a kill power on its own would potentially be suspicious in that, if he's actually mafia, it'd give him an easy out if he's ever seen near a victim - he can just claim he totally thought they were mafia and whoops he was wrong, and also that meanwhile the mafia must've hit a healer's target that night hence only one kill. But if he claims it's only on odd nights that he can even do that, this doesn't protect him as much.

And I really think, if Diyem's telling the truth, that him having chosen to not kill anyone last night is perfectly reasonable. If I were a vig, I probably wouldn't aim for someone unless I had a pretty strong suspicion towards them either. Vig can potentially be a very useful role for town in wiping out mafia fast, but it can also potentially end up being unintentionally helpful towards the mafia if the vig has bad judgement and keeps accidentally killing bonus townies on top of the regular mafia kills. Having the power be only usable every other night seems a reasonable way to balance that out and prevent the role from swinging the game too far in one or the other direction solely based on the good or bad judgement of the vig player. It's perfectly believable, possible slightly more so than this game just having a regular every-night vig.

...And since it seems like Namo probably isn't familiar enough with the meta of role-heavy games to have thought of including the odd-night part to make the claim seem more believable, this does actually make me more inclined to believe they're telling the truth, now that I think about it.

 

[windskull]

I can follow that logic, elyvorg. With that in mind, I'm inclined to believe Namo is innocent at this point in time, and will back off unless more damning evidence shows up.

 

[NonAnalogue]

I normally don't like posting out of character but i'm not sure when i'll next be able to write a post this afternoon -

Clearly there were several points I wasn't considering and now i'm just like "well shoot."

Retracting my vote while I think about this some more.

 

[Starlight Aurate]

damn i just got owned

lol I'm so sorry, I didn't mean for it to come across that way.

That being said, I feel that there is sufficient reason for the mafia to choose to target you as well.

... that said, if we shoot randomly into the pool of people who i fee null about (starlight/persephone/dragonfree/nonanalogue/windskull/equitia), the odds of hitting scum are pretty good. imo there’s probably at most one wolf among elyvorg/me/namo/tanuki/sike/dw, so that makes the odds of hitting scum in my null pile, like... what, 1/3? not bad at all honestly. we could probably file it down even further to improve our odds. i might come back to this later.

Uhhh I feel like that's not a good idea. I'm not a fan of taking a random shot in the dark without much incriminating evidence, as we don't have much of anything on the people you feel null about whereas the latter group is looking a lot more likely to hold a mafia member.

I'm going with jailing Sike Saner.

[[Yami Bakura looked around. Things were FINALLY happening, but before the dragon could be lynched, he begged innocence and revealed his ability to take people out during some nights. That ability would significantly increase the carnage--how interesting!

But he was so sick of standing around, and everyone was getting on his nerves more and more. He already loved dismay and fear and manipulation, but nothing was actually happening!

"Okay, look," he said, "we need to do something. A confirmed ally died the other night and choosing to merely refrain from action will only allow the enemy to take us out more quickly. We must do something." He looked down at his Millennium Ring; he knew people who could still prove useful, but there were others he was simply tired of hearing from.

He looked up at the giant blue... thing that was sleeping near him.

"That one. Lynch it. Send it to the Shadow Realm. Now."]]

 

[Dragonfree]

[["Okay, so," Dave said, "Let's go through this clusterfuck real quick. Espurr could just be lying, but this'd be kind of a weird-ass lie to pull out while asking to be eliminated from the game; you're just going to get yourself exposed immediately and have accomplished nothing. Plus asking to actually be eliminated would be something your mafia buddies wouldn't be fucking thrilled about, and who wouldn't ask them first about something like that? So I'm not buying that Espurr lied.

"If Finnar and Nta... Ntairow? If they're both telling the truth, then that means the mafia targeted Lauchzelot and it ended up on Chibi, and Espurr's check instead landed on Lauchzelot. But then Ntairow's protection should've also landed on Lauchzelot, and Espurr should've seen that too. The only real explanation is if Ntairow's protection never landed, which means there's a roleblocker who stopped her targeting Chibi at all. Since I'm assuming if they were on our side they'd have clarified by now, that means a mafia roleblocker..

"So okay, then say Finnar's lying, and there was no swapping. Finnar shot Chibi, end of, and that's what Espurr saw. But then Ntairow's still unaccounted for, both why the kill still happened and why Espurr didn't see her. So either she's also lying, or there's a mafia roleblocker, again.

"If Ntairow is lying, and Chibi wasn't protected, that'd explain why Chibi died and why Espurr didn't see Ntairow. But if she's the only one lying, then Ntairow went out of her way to lie to make a claim that contradicted what actually happened, without knowing Finnar'd propose an explanation that'd happen to line up. That'd be a stupid-ass move. This only really makes sense if they're both lying and both mafia, and they coordinated this so we'd all think they corroborated each other.

"Honestly? It'd be kind of nice if Ntairow got eliminated and we'd find out if she was telling the truth. If she was, it tells us there's almost definitely a mafia roleblocker; if she wasn't, it tells us Finnar's almost definitely mafia, too. It's good info. But obviously losing a genuine doctor just for confirmation a roleblocker exists isn't exactly a stellar outcome.

"The Charizard's claim checks out in principle, and hopefully would've been contradicted by now if someone else had that role. The odd-night stipulation is a risky detail to add. So I don't think we should go for him today. It's either Ntairow or one of the people who haven't made a claim."

Dave shook his head. "Or, you know, just fuck it and do whatever because why are we playing along with any of this shit. Ugh."]]

 

[kyeugh]

Uhhh I feel like that's not a good idea. I'm not a fan of taking a random shot in the dark without much incriminating evidence, as we don't have much of anything on the people you feel null about whereas the latter group is looking a lot more likely to hold a mafia member.

that’s not really the point. we don’t really have damning evidence on anyone, yet the mafia are still all alive. as i said, the odds of there being more than one wolf in my initial list are fairly low; the second list contains the people i DON’T feel are more likely than random to be town, so MOST of the mafia are imo probably in there, and thus shooting randomly in there has fairly good odds of hitting scum. hitting within the group that’s likely to contain multiple mafia is better, odds-wise, than hitting within the similarly-sized group that probably only contains one. this is imo the very best option barring other information.

but we DO have other information. i bring this up mainly because i’m not super certain about where to go with the information we have, since i think there are legitimate reasons to believe either sike or dw are town. but it seems exactly one of them is mafia? just to be clear, is that where we’re at? is it actually impossible they’re both telling the truth?

anyway, i think i’m leaning sike at the moment, but it feels kind of bad because they’re obv not here to defend themself. but meh. i’ll still wait a bit before voting.

just putting it out there that i like dragonfree’s posting. in games i’ve played with her where she’s scum and i’m not, i usually find myself disagreeing with her takes, and in games where we’re both town i usually agree with her fairly strongly on most things. this game definitely falls into the latter category, so i feel good about her.

 

[elyvorg]

[[After listening to what the messy Human said (he really could make sense sometimes, couldn't he), Tefiren poked the big blue one again; she still hadn't woken up. "Are you seriously going to sleep through this? Is this Their way of being sore losers now that we're actually going to catch one of Them for once? That's no fun! Hmph.

"If she's not even going to wake up for this, then we might as well just get rid of her. Unless she wakes up and says something after all, then maybe not. But only maybe."
]]

Okay, I was going to make my own logicpost about this, but Dave/Dragonfree laid it out better than I did. She also brought up the point I hadn't considered that, yeah, mafia!Sike building up soft-fake-claim of doctor who healed the person who died and starting to do so before DawningWinds's claim came along to make that actually possible really wouldn't make sense as a lie, unless Sike knew that DawningWinds was also going to claim that.

So, if we lynch Sike, then either they flip innocent and we know there's a mafia roleblocker, or they flip mafia and we can point some serious suspicion towards DawningWinds tomorrow as well. The flipping mafia outcome is more ideal, obviously, but also much more likely, since the roleblocker just happening to target Sike last night would have been completely random chance.

(I know I said I wanted to believe that Sike's claim was genuine, but looking back on their claimposts with the knowledge of this evidence, I'm no longer quite so convinced it couldn't have been faked? And I really do want to take the lynch most likely to be successful based on the logic. I'm willing to potentially reconsider if Sike does in fact speak up before the deadline, though.)

 

[kyeugh]

as i said, the odds of there being more than one wolf in my initial list are fairly low; the second list contains the people i DON’T feel are more likely than random to be town, so MOST of the mafia are imo probably in there

er, swap these. initial list probably contains multiple mafia, second one probably contains at most one. probably move dragonfree to the second list.

 

[elyvorg]

mafia!Sike building up soft-fake-claim of doctor who healed the person who died and starting to do so before DawningWinds's claim came along to make that actually possible really wouldn't make sense as a lie, unless Sike knew that DawningWinds was also going to claim that.

...Well, okay, I suppose that maybe Sike fakeclaiming healing Chibi could have been solely for the purpose of making us think the mafia had used up their strongman kill already, and DawningWinds's claim wouldn't need to be involved. So the logic's not completely airtight. But that still seems kinda risky and much more easily called-out.