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Ah, well, at least Seren't post didn't completely upend everything. A relief to only have a couple pages to look at today. On the other hand, it pretty much comes down to whether Seren is lying and made a mistake by claiming Absorber without realizing the contradiction with Pano's N0 tracking result, or whether Pano is lying and made a mistake by claiming a visit result on a player with a passive role.
...which is a tough call for me, tbh. From my perspective, the only seriously major suspicious thing Seren's done is defend Shini. Plus that if Pano's telling the truth, his claim above doesn't work! While on the opposite side, Pano's play has felt off to me from what I've backread of the game. Plus, of course, if Seren's telling the truth above, her claim doesn't work! I do know that her explanation for what's gone on in the game so far is incorrect, since I'm not mafia, but unfortunately it does fit nicely and I can't find any direct contradictions, I guess except Seren's . But something has to be wrong there. On the whole I just feel worse about her than I do about Seren. Although it may certainly be bias, since Seren's posted so much less and so has had fewer opportunities to screw up!
Buuuut I'll also be real and say that I
fear a scum team with Pano on it more than one with Seren on it. I think Pano is an overall safer lynch, and one that helps a lot with resolving the game state. People seem pretty dead-set on lynching Seren at this point, so I doubt it matters, but
Vote: Panoramic_Vacuum
@Inkedust
But I will assume Seren's getting lynched today. In light of that, what should we do at night?
If Seren flips
innocent, things could get pretty bad! I think that would pretty much confirm Pano as scum, with either Sind or Minty as a partner. Pano/Minty is the worst possible scenario, as Minty can shoot twice and may be able to strongshot someone; one way or another they'll get at least one death. If they managed to get shots off on two different (non-Sind, who'd be innocent in this scenario) people, it would just come down to whether I picked the right heal target and/or whether Yellow could prevent it somehow. If not, that mafia team wins tomorrow night.
If the scum are Sind/Pano, then Minty has to choose between me, Sind, and Pano as block targets. We could end up with either one or zero dead based on who Minty picks and if I'm on point with my heal and unblocked. I guess in this scenario Minty should just make whatever they think the most correct blocks are and then hopes to live until tomorrow to report who they blocked, and if so we can try to sort out what went down from there. One way or another, in this scenario I think we need to lynch Pano tomorrow regardless and then sort out me/Sind the day after. Lots of uncertainty, it pretty much sucks. However, there's at least no way for scum to outright win tomorrow night in this scenario unless they've been sitting on a big secret power. But we will
need to lynch correctly tomorrow or straight lose. If anyone has suggestions for mitigating risk in this scenario, I'm all ears.
If Seren's innocent I don't think there's really much we *can* do to confirm anyone's roles, except
potentially in the case of Sind/Pano scumteam and Minty blocking them as outlined above. There are too many unknowns. I think the best thing to do is if Minty's Town, they block the two people they're most suspicious of from among me, Sind, and Pano--if they guess right and nobody dies, there's very likely at least one scum among those two. I think that if Pano's Town, her general best bet is to track Minty, as insurance against Minty dying or scum!Minty lying about targets. This is not perfect because scum!Pano could always lie about tracking targets, but I don't see any way to get around that; just something we'd need to be aware of and pick through on the following day. I think my best play is always just to heal whoever I think most likely to die tomorrow night, easy enough. And if Sinderella's town she should, of course, just chill. :p
At this point I'm simply leaving Tetra and Yellow out of the equation, unless anyone thinks there's a reason to keep them in. There is not much known about Yellow's ability at this point, and I think she ought to keep it that way. Since I think she's very, very likely Town, I trust her to use whatever she thinks is best at her discretion. I would also personally suggest that Tetra use her power on Yellow tonight if she uses is on anyone; picking wrong with it tonight would be very bad, and I think everybody else is under at least some degree of suspicion. (Unless it might get weird with Yellow's powers? That'd be for Yellow to say one way or the other if she's concerned.)
If Seren flips
mafia, obviously things are a bit easier. The remaining scum is either Minty or Sind (like it could theoretically be Pano, but I don't think it's worth worrying about at that point), but of course we have to try to confirm my role, too. ;) And the remaining scum will only be able to kill, if this game is at all like the other ones that have taken place on TR.
In this case, I think Pano is cleared and should track Minty. Minty should block me and Sind. If someone dies, we know that Minty is scum. (or technically it could be pano/tetra/yellow, but at this point I'm simply discounting that possibility altogether) If someone
doesn't die, then if Pano tracked Minty and it says they went nowhere, I think we can identify them as scum. The tracking is just intended to cover the potential case that this is a game where mafia are allowed to abstain from killing.
Otherwise, if Pano tracked Minty to me/Sind, and there were no deaths, we know that one of me or Sind (so, Sind) is mafia. And nobody dies! So we can lynch the biggest suspect in the next Day and be in a really good position. Hope for this outcome, lol.
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