[INNOCENTS WIN] First Anniversary Fanfic Mafia - Game Thread

[Namohysip]

[[

"--Additionally," Diyem said, a thought suddenly occurring to him, "do not try to self-preserve yourself by suggesting if you fall, then I am the one who did it. That's just asking the true culprits to strike you and cast suspicion on me and stall out another turn." He pointed a fiery claw toward Desper. "Think before you speak."

]]

 

[DawningWinds]

Okay the main thing I see going on is people suggesting no lynching. I, for one, hate no lynches. I've only ever been in a situation where there's been a no lynch once, and that honestly made the game feel really slow even though it was the second shortest game I've been in. Not only that, but mislynches can be used to get information. In one game I was in, the one person on the D1 mislynch wagon turned out scum (yes there were other votes but the game had a weird mechanic). People on a mislynch wagon can be looked into as suspects (though they aren't always scum, it is a good idea to consider; in every game I've been in, there was at least one scum on the D1 mislynch wagon), while a correctly-placed wagon eliminates Mafia and thus increases the chances of town winning. A no lynch not only gives no information, but gives the scum a 100% chance of not dying. Now, I'm not saying I know exactly who we should lynch (or that we should lynch randomly because there's no information coming from that), but I do think we should actually try and find someone who seems suspicious instead of saying "it's day one, we're not losing anything by a no lynch". I intend to look into everyone who is suggesting a no lynch first.

(Sorry for not posting earlier I was in the ER all day with no device of any sort [well no there were things for measuring vitals and a thing to pump in IV fluids and an x-ray but you try playing Mafia using any of those].)

If we kill the strongman... the backup becomes the mafia strongman. I'm suddenly leery about my own strategy.

I'm actually pretty sure a town-aligned backup cannot become mafia-aligned by a mafia dying first.

 

[Namohysip]

Hello, I'm dumb. Please disregard my suspicions that they can switch alignments... They can just be either mafia or innocent, but typically innocent?

 

[kyeugh]

OOC/Translation: Pushing so hard to kill the only one against more than likely adding another innocent to the list of the dead so soon is really suspicious.

meh. not really. i think it’s fairly common for people to balk at this idea because it’s not immediately intuitive, but it’s pretty much universally good practice in the meta to lynch d1. not really scummy to push for a very common play widely regarded as optimal. needless to say this conversation has been had many, many times. genetically the answer is the same.

 

[kyeugh]

meh. not really. i think it’s fairly common for people to balk at this idea because it’s not immediately intuitive, but it’s pretty much universally good practice in the meta to lynch d1. not really scummy to push for a very common play widely regarded as optimal. needless to say this conversation has been had many, many times. genetically the answer is the same.

* generally lol

 

[Sike Saner]

Even if the backup did take on both the strongman's role and alignment, the original strongman would be dead, so there'd still effectively only be one, and it'd be like we just didn't actually kill them the first time. Right?

The wiki page on backups mentions that they keep the remaining shots of an x-shot role, so assuming Negrek's going by that, we don't have to worry about the one-shot potentially becoming a two-shot.

It wouldn't become a two-shot, but if the backup can change alignment, then we'd lose an extra innocent by way of the backup automatically defecting. But indeed this is only an issue if an alignment change would happen in that case. If it can't happen, then no harm no foul whatsoever if we take out the strongman.

 

[Sike Saner]

View attachment 97
Hello, I'm dumb. Please disregard my suspicions that they can switch alignments... They can just be either mafia or innocent, but typically innocent?

Whoops, this came up while I was composing my previous post. So, okay, it really does look like potentially lynching a strongman in the presence of a backup is a complete non-issue and shouldn't influence our decision of whether or not to lynch today.

 

[Namohysip]

Please stop sniping me less than a minute before I hit send ;_;

Okay, sorry for the mixup. I checked and indeed, backups can be any alignment, but they do not swap alignments. I wholly misinterpreted the wiki page.

This means that a mislynch is still on the safer side after all.

So, with that in mind...

[[

Diyem looked through the brochure again, analyzing every word. All of the chatter was messing with his ability to concentrate. "...The backup doesn't seem to change roles," he said. "...Mm."

He looked to the group. "Well?"

]]

 

[Tanuki]

[[Desper hit heels first, giddy as'a tamer off'n outlaw. "Well, ain't that a hoot. Sour's speakin' English all a sudden, just to go kettle'n call the pot black." He reoriented his hat'n tapped his holstered iron. "'T'was'n't a moment ago you were beggin' this town to tie'n tear some random fool, and now my aim's too eager?" Desper couldn't help but laugh. "Yer more obtuse'n a hoss on heifer. 'F I was in a more 'violent mood,' I'd cap you m'self, Sours. I'on't need another notch quite yet, though, s'count y'self an unhatched chicken."]]

OOC/Translation: I'm really suspicious of Namo at this point.

 

[Chibi Pika]

[[

Too much noise. Too much to sort through. He couldn't stand it. His feathers crackle with sparks, but he was't even sure if he could let off a Thunderbolt here if he tried.

In the midst of it all, the Charizard voiced a request for input, and Chibi jumped on it. "I stand by what I said. Saying that we get no information if we refuse to eliminate anyone today is just false. We have the chance for all but one of us to go into Day 2 with two nights and one day worth of information. And as for the argument that it means we get nothing out of this day's discussion"--he glances around--"well, I think we're getting a fair amount of info just by seeing how everyone's reacting."

]]

((OOC: I feel like people are severely underestimating the power of two free nights of power roles working their magic.))

 

[kyeugh]

a bit of math for those in doubt:

let's say there are 3 scum, 11 non-scum. (idrk what a reasonable assumption is so we'll just go with that, but these numbers are easy enough to adjust if you'd like to make a different assumption.)
given that no one has died today, the odds of hitting scum if we lynch completely randomly tomorrow are 3/14, or ~21%.
if we lynch a townie, and another one dies tonight, we're down to 3 scum, 9 non-scum. the odds of hitting scum now are 3/12, or 25%. note that we should have more information by tomorrow, so the odds are likely going to be better than that.
if we don't lynch today, and a townie dies overnight, our odds of hitting scum completely randomly are only 3/13, or 23%.

small differences, but they don't account for the information we'll acquire over time (and we will almost certainly have something to worth with tomorrow given the number of informational roles are in this game), nor the fact that our lynches will not be completely random. it's true that mislynches bring mafia closer to victory, but they also definitively sort players and slim our pool of who might be mafia. as long as the game is still stacked in town's favor (which it basically always is, at the beginning of the game, and certainly is now seeing as there was no nightkill last night), it's best to slim the pool and sort as many players as possible with the means we have. as long as we aren't at risk of losing, a smaller pool helps our accuracy more than it moves scum towards victory.

((OOC: I feel like people are severely underestimating the power of two free nights of power roles working their magic.))

given the presence of a universal backup, how does lynching someone affect this? there was still no kill last night, and no power role will be lost regardless of today's outcome.

 

[Namohysip]

[[

Diyem continued to glare at Desper. He wasn't sure if he was trying to instigate a fight to cast even more suspicion on him, or if he was just paranoid because he spoke the most. And here he was, originally thinking he would merely sit back and let the others speak. Apparently he couldn't help himself.

"...I was wrong," Diyem said flatly, deciding to accept the lesser evil. "If you cannot accept someone being mistaken and revising their point, then it is pointless for me to consider your argument." He beat his wings once, sighing. "Fine. I will not rock the boat. Perhaps an extra night to gather more information would be useful after all."

]]

given the presence of a universal backup, how does lynching someone affect this? there was still no kill last night, and no power role will be lost regardless of today's outcome.

There actually is a use here: If we lynch someone incorrectly, we lose our backup. If we do nothing, and the mafia kills someone, we lose our backup--but if we already lost our backup, then that other townie's power is gone for good.

The only advantage to intentionally getting rid of our backup is if they have an info role, they can divulge their information before going out--which we won't be able to do if the mafia does it instead. But we will still have the role in play; that's the tradeoff.

 

[Namohysip]

Additionally, now that it seems nobody here is actually a lurker for the time being, that option is out the window, too.

 

[Chibi Pika]

Okay, this wasn't what I originally read, but here is a discussion on no-lynching where it argues that, while lynching day 1 is better in a vanilla game, it gets to be less of a good idea if there are more roles: https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=609&t=222775&sid=3880058bd895b2262bce56dc2ee66dc7

((I'm really glad you found this, because I was certain I'd also read that D1 lynch was bad in role-heavy games, and while this wasn't the source I read either, this one has a lot more math on the subject.))

 

[Sike Saner]

[[Ntairow gave a huff of frustration. The notion of sitting dormant still left her anxious on some level, but whenever she actually pictured her hands around the throat of one of the others, she felt herself quailing on a visceral level. Whenever she thought of shedding blood, she saw someone else bleeding.

"Damn it..." she hissed. She needed to be stronger than this. More certain. For everyone's sake.]]

[[Desper hit heels first, giddy as'a tamer off'n outlaw. "Well, ain't that a hoot. Sour's speakin' English all a sudden, just to go kettle'n call the pot black." He reoriented his hat'n tapped his holstered iron. "'T'was'n't a moment ago you were beggin' this town to tie'n tear some random fool, and now my aim's too eager?" Desper couldn't help but laugh. "Yer more obtuse'n a hoss on heifer. 'F I was in a more 'violent mood,' I'd cap you m'self, Sours. I'on't need another notch quite yet, though, s'count y'self an unhatched chicken."]]

OOC/Translation: I'm really suspicious of Namo at this point.

Hmm, can't sympathize. Namo's changes of heart have come about in the wake of actually learning things, gaining new information. That's the sort of behavior that I think should be encouraged. Information is our friend, and an unwillingness to change tack in accordance with it therefore seems like something that's Not Great for our cause.

 

[windskull]

Just something minor I want to throw out there: there's more roles on the list than there are players. Even removing the generic mafia and townies from the list, there's 15 roles and 14 players, excluding the secret custom role. Even if certain roles like lover are doubled up with an ability, if we have dupes, there's a chance that there is no backup at all. (Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but I do have to focus on studying for my last exam so I may not see any new messages right away.)

 

[Namohysip]

((I'm really glad you found this, because I was certain I'd also read that D1 lynch was bad in role-heavy games, and while this wasn't the source I read either, this one has a lot more math on the subject.))

Okay, that err is on me. I think the guides and advice I had looked up must assume role-light games or something. Or I just shouldn't trust Quora.

If we have a backup and a lot of info roles (watcher, masons, seer, etc.) then after further thought, I'm in favor of sitting pretty.

[[

Diyem continued to cross his arms, then folded his wings over his body while he looked contemplative. "I find it ironic you call me obtuse, you... strange, little mouse." Diyem glanced at Desper. "When ultimately I am the one who can react to new information."

]]

Even if certain roles like lover are doubled up with an ability, if we have dupes, there's a chance that there is no backup at all.

Yes, this is correct. In fact, there is a chance that EVERYBODY has a power of some kind... Though I get the feeling some people really are just vanilla. Unless literally only one person is. Does that count as a power in itself? They can do anything and not worry about hurting the innocents.

 

[Dragonfree]

[["You say you've been in this situation before," she said. "Would you mind telling us exactly how you survived?"]]

[[Dave threw out his hands. "Honestly? I don't know if I did survive. Last thing I remember is, like, being choked to death by my guardian angel, so maybe this shit is all my dying fucking afterlife hallucination. Would explain a lot of things."]]

[["No point in trying to win against deities, you say? HA! I've already done so, three-thousand years in the past! The deities I know have been trapped and enslaved to be used for peoples' bidding! Oh, when there are deities, they have weaknesses. And those weaknesses can ALWAYS be found out and exploited," he growled.]]

[[Dave snorted. "Yeah? I'm all fucking ears."]]

[[Tefiren stared at the Human, dismayed and more than a little confused. He'd been hoping to hear exciting tales of cunning escapes from this guy - though, now that Tefiren gave his dishevelled state a proper once-over, he didn't exactly look like the cunning type - but instead... nothing he said made any sense at all. He blinked, responding to the only part he could latch onto. "Why would you... not want to play the game?"]]

[[Dave stared at Tefiren. "Why would you want to? Do you enjoy having random giggling incorporeal shitheads fucking with your life for fun and profit? Was this Archopy's idea of fun back in one hundred million BC? Because if so I'm starting to see why they went extinct."]]

[["I don't mean to overstep, Lord David, but it seems to me like your words speak truth not just to the nature of this game, but to the nature of life itself! And, well, of course it's always an option not to play... But can you truly call that victory? We are all, and have always been, hopelessly subject to the powers that be, but that has never stopped this duck from carpe-ing the diem, as it were. Oho! Look at me, waxing so philosophical. Terribly unlike me, I assure you. Though I have been praised in the past for my powerful mind..."]]

[["I mean, if your daily life involves playing living chess pieces for a bunch of chucklefucks, yeah, sure, it's just like the nature of life itself." Dave rolled his eyes. "Everything's the same, if you just find the right meaningless metaphor to describe both. Philosopher of the year right here, this talking fucking onion duck. Give him a fucking trophy."

Dave sipped his coffee irritably as the discussion progressed. "Look," he said after a while of back-and-forth about whether or not they should jail someone, "whether it's worth jailing somebody today all hinges on exactly how much information we're going to get out of the night versus the loss of losing one of our only chances to take out some of the mafia. There are too many variables to know for sure. Bigger concern is if we're going to jail we need to decide how we pick who. Nothing's stopping the mafia pointing at a helpful innocent and going oh yeah, totally just flipped a coin. And if we announce we're jailing someone less active, all the mafia has to do is say more fluff than whoever's the laziest innocent. God, why can't the fucking board game dimension just have some fucking dice."]]

I have now been nerdsniped by the game-theoretic problem of how a guaranteed random choice can be made when all inputs are controlled by players who may or may not be duplicitous. I feel sure there's a clever cryptographic algorithm for doing exactly this.

(Obviously, post making a random pick, we'd be able to adjust based on reactions, etc. I'm open to abstaining - I don't think it's unlikely that this is a setup where we may get a lot of information during the night, and also people not dying makes for more fun roleplaying. But actually putting some pressure on players and getting reactions is good too, over everyone just shrugging and waiting for tomorrow.)

 

[Chibi Pika]

Hmm, can't sympathize. Namo's changes of heart have come about in the wake of actually learning things, gaining new information. That's the sort of behavior that I think should be encouraged. Information is our friend, and an unwillingness to change tack in accordance with it therefore seems like something that's Not Great for our cause.

Seconded.

 

[kyeugh]

There actually is a use here: If we lynch someone incorrectly, we lose our backup. If we do nothing, and the mafia kills someone, we lose our backup--but if we already lost our backup, then that other townie's power is gone for good.

The only advantage to intentionally getting rid of our backup is if they have an info role, they can divulge their information before going out--which we won't be able to do if the mafia does it instead. But we will still have the role in play; that's the tradeoff.

true! but this is going to happen eventually no matter what, and soon. i guess i'd get it if this was a thing we could realistically drag out for for any prolonged period of time, but either we lose it today, or we lose it tonight. i don't think the difference is significant enough to matter a whole lot here, though it is something to consider i suppose.

in re: equitia's link, i think the backup nullifies a lot of the points there, as well as the fact that i don't really believe we will be approaching the end game within the next day or two. also, this setup has way more informational roles than any setup i've ever played in, haha. the post only makes a compelling case if no-lynching reasonably moves town very close at all toward a Lynch or Lose situation, but i think we have enough wiggle room here that that isn't the case, and the fact that many of the roles are variations of each other PLUS the probable presence of a backup makes me not really worried about it.

In the midst of it all, the Charizard voiced a request for input, and Chibi jumped on it. "I stand by what I said. Saying that we get no information if we refuse to eliminate anyone today is just false. We have the chance for all but one of us to go into Day 2 with two nights and one day worth of information. And as for the argument that it means we get nothing out of this day's discussion"--he glances around--"well, I think we're getting a fair amount of info just by seeing how everyone's reacting."

[[ Lauchs couldn't seem to get enough of the strange, talking pikachu. The thought didn't even occur to him to suppress the vacant smile spreading across his face as he watched Chibi speak, though he probably wouldn't have acted on it if it did. The little mouse was awfully grave for such a cute little thing, but that just added to his charm, didn't it?

"Information? Squabbling, more like. About mechanics, numbers, ethics. Nothing useful to be gleaned here. I suspect the wicked among us would like for us to bicker about such things, rather than moving toward a solution." Lauchs shook his head sadly. "Things are being said, yes, but they do not stand in for things that might be said in more productive avenues of conversation. Like the merits of organic onion-based weaponry over classical steel blades!"

"I mean, if your daily life involves playing living chess pieces for a bunch of chucklefucks, yeah, sure, it's just like the nature of life itself." Dave rolled his eyes. "Everything's the same, if you just find the right meaningless metaphor to describe both. Philosopher of the year right here, this talking fucking onion duck. Give him a fucking trophy."

"I'll have you know there is literally a chess piece called the 'knight,' ohoho! Would that I could claim the same level of agency you seem to be boasting here. Alas, I shall only accept trophies once I have won."]]