DawningWinds
Ace Trainer
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The Godfather.
Fall 2020 Mafia - Game Thread
- Thread starter Starlight Aurate
- Start date
Tanuki
Friend of All Chu
- Location
- Rhyme City
- Pronouns
- He/him/his
@DawningWinds does it make sense? Like I said, I have no experience with independents, but this seems fishy to me.
Tanuki
Friend of All Chu
- Location
- Rhyme City
- Pronouns
- He/him/his
Still waiting on a best man for Desper, btw. Current headcanon is no one died because everyone was at either his or Ashwood’s bachelor party.
DawningWinds
Ace Trainer
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Persephone's claim: Two-Target Lyncher with Bulletproof-PGO Hybrid ability
Lynchers are usually told either the player they need to kill or the character of who they need to kill (the role is called a Lyncher even when they're target doesn't have to die by lynching), but the latter of which would not work if Star wanted Persephone to have to figure out her target due to the nature of the game. So, on that front, telling her the roles she needs to take out makes sense.
Lynchers are usually ejected from the game when their target dies (as are Unlynchers, but when their target dies, they lose), but Perse claims to have two targets instead of one. I think Perse being told when the first of her targets dies as a two-target Lyncher would depend on the host, most likely.
Overall: I still have no idea.
Lynchers are usually told either the player they need to kill or the character of who they need to kill (the role is called a Lyncher even when they're target doesn't have to die by lynching), but the latter of which would not work if Star wanted Persephone to have to figure out her target due to the nature of the game. So, on that front, telling her the roles she needs to take out makes sense.
Lynchers are usually ejected from the game when their target dies (as are Unlynchers, but when their target dies, they lose), but Perse claims to have two targets instead of one. I think Perse being told when the first of her targets dies as a two-target Lyncher would depend on the host, most likely.
Overall: I still have no idea.
Tanuki
Friend of All Chu
- Location
- Rhyme City
- Pronouns
- He/him/his
So, the first independent role introduced to TR is a hybrid of a hybrid. It seems way too complicated to be introductory. It just doesn’t read well with me, but again, I’m just biased against independent roles because I’ve not played with them and don’t know how to handle them.
I’m also feeling more inclined to my no-lynch theory. Nobody has any absolutely damning mafia evidence, the closest being me and DW are both roleblockers and Perse’s confusing as hell role. The only killings have been by lynching. I don’t see the numbers on our side here if we make a mistake.
We have no certain suspects. If we lose more than one innocent today, we will have lost by tomorrow. Unless we can be absolutely certain someone is mafia, we should abstain.
Also, like, a lynch wouldn’t really vibe with the wedding reception.
I’m also feeling more inclined to my no-lynch theory. Nobody has any absolutely damning mafia evidence, the closest being me and DW are both roleblockers and Perse’s confusing as hell role. The only killings have been by lynching. I don’t see the numbers on our side here if we make a mistake.
We have no certain suspects. If we lose more than one innocent today, we will have lost by tomorrow. Unless we can be absolutely certain someone is mafia, we should abstain.
Also, like, a lynch wouldn’t really vibe with the wedding reception.
Tanuki
Friend of All Chu
- Location
- Rhyme City
- Pronouns
- He/him/his
I pressed send too early. I also have a plan that increases the chances no one dies over night. Give me a moment.
Tanuki
Friend of All Chu
- Location
- Rhyme City
- Pronouns
- He/him/his
Basically, there are a few constants in this game: every time there hasn't been a killing, Phant has not killed. If they actually somehow decided just not to kill someone last night, what had to have stopped them before was DW roleblocking Phant. So, DW should tonight block Phant once more.
The second constant is nobody really trusts Persephone. I think she's yellow at least on everyone's list. It's within the realm of possibility what kept everyone alive last night was the doctors. So, since she's probably mafia, I would block her. If no one dies tonight after me and DW block Perse and Phan respectively, we have the killers down to two suspects.
Ideally, there are only two mafia. In this case, we will have won. However, three is a possibility. So, if we narrow it down to Perse and Phan, realistically the next suspects are me and DW. At that point, we will have enough numbers over the mafia that we can lose one innocent and still prevail. So, if I'm killed but innocent, DW doesn't automatically when, or if DW is killed but innocent, I don't automatically win.
While it's possible the inactives have been pulling the strings the whole time, I don't see much evidence to suspect either of them. The most likely trio in my mind is Perse, Phan, and DW/me (with the obvious caveat that I don't think I'm mafia). We can only confirm the first two with a night that disables both Perse and Phan. Once Perse is confirmed and down, numbers are back on our side and we can take on Phan, after which we deliberate between DW and I.
With this plan, doctors, and our two watchers for supplementary info, we should be able to get out of here with at most one innocent more dead.
The second constant is nobody really trusts Persephone. I think she's yellow at least on everyone's list. It's within the realm of possibility what kept everyone alive last night was the doctors. So, since she's probably mafia, I would block her. If no one dies tonight after me and DW block Perse and Phan respectively, we have the killers down to two suspects.
Ideally, there are only two mafia. In this case, we will have won. However, three is a possibility. So, if we narrow it down to Perse and Phan, realistically the next suspects are me and DW. At that point, we will have enough numbers over the mafia that we can lose one innocent and still prevail. So, if I'm killed but innocent, DW doesn't automatically when, or if DW is killed but innocent, I don't automatically win.
While it's possible the inactives have been pulling the strings the whole time, I don't see much evidence to suspect either of them. The most likely trio in my mind is Perse, Phan, and DW/me (with the obvious caveat that I don't think I'm mafia). We can only confirm the first two with a night that disables both Perse and Phan. Once Perse is confirmed and down, numbers are back on our side and we can take on Phan, after which we deliberate between DW and I.
With this plan, doctors, and our two watchers for supplementary info, we should be able to get out of here with at most one innocent more dead.
Tanuki
Friend of All Chu
- Location
- Rhyme City
- Pronouns
- He/him/his
I guess I should say my plan more concisely:
1) we abstain from voting today.
2) Me and DW block Perse and Phan respectively.
3) If no one dies, we lynch Perse first and block Phan that night.
4) If, again, no one dies, we lynch Phan.
5) If both flip mafia but we haven't won, we deliberate between me and DW, voting one off first, then the next.
6) Uh, win. Yay.
1) we abstain from voting today.
2) Me and DW block Perse and Phan respectively.
3) If no one dies, we lynch Perse first and block Phan that night.
4) If, again, no one dies, we lynch Phan.
5) If both flip mafia but we haven't won, we deliberate between me and DW, voting one off first, then the next.
6) Uh, win. Yay.
Tanuki
Friend of All Chu
- Location
- Rhyme City
- Pronouns
- He/him/his
There is an obvious counter to this, however it's easily subverted. Being out in the open, on the off chance the mafia are not either Perse or Phan, the mafia could choose to frame them by not killing. This would immediately be revealed, however, if Perse or Phan flip innocent. At that point, we know it's someone out of the high priority four (Perse, Phan, DW, and I), which then narrows it down to Wind, Espy, and Waffle. I, nor anyone else, can reasonably suspect my fiance.
Shiny Phantump
Through Dream, I Travel
Right now, I see one possibility that is by far the most likely is that Espy saved someone. We know Espy targeted someone, but not who it was. If the mafia killer targeted her target, no night kill.
If Espy did save someone, I think DWs is scum. Nobody can confirm her townie roleblocker claim, because she chose to target a passive role twice instead of, y’know, the person who she should think is 100% beyond any reasonable doubt scum, who is also confirmed to be an active role.
So... why? It makes sense if DW is killer. She woke up and saw a failed kill. Claiming to have roleblocked me again is a very safe bet. It throws lots of suspicion onto me as Mafia Killer, and is extremely difficult to disprove. In fact the only way it could possibly be proven to not be what prevented the nightkill is if Tanuki roleblocked her and Equital targeted me or her with his scan... Which is exactly what happened.
Despite being a relatively safe play for the Mafia, it blew up on her. I was successfully confirmed innocent. (Honestly, iirc nobody can confirm her as any form roleblocker, so she could possibly be the killer herself, with Tanuki’s roleblock being the cause of the failed kill.)
Now, I don’t want to just look at reasons DWs is scum. After all, roleblocking me as a townie has one possible upside: it could’ve prevented the nightkill. Now, that’s nothing to scoff at, but it’s also not a compelling reason because of one significant downside: By preventing my being confirmed as anything, it muddies the waters in a way only beneficial to the mafia. Even if DW knew, beyond any possible doubt, that I was Mafia, all roleblocking me would do is stop me from digging my own grave and setting y’all up for the easiest scum lynching in mafia history. Debatably worth it as it stands, but since she can’t possibly think I’m 100% scum, townie DW would have to consider another possibility:
Blocking me if I am innocent is obviously a huge waste of everyone’s time, and worse, also has a significant chance of causing a third innocent lynch. Why not block who she would see as the obvious scum in Tanuki instead?
Ultimately, I can’t imagine why townie DW would possibly take the actions she claims to have taken tonight.
However, even if we all agree that DWs is totally scum, there’s also one other matter at hand: Her or Persephone? Both have scummy vibes. While Persephone’s new roleclaim, which means she wanted to be targeted by the Vig, does explain the borderline suicidal roleclaim. Fuse being Vig also explains why he completely dismissed the possibility of getting vigkilled last night. However, let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Persephone is 100% definitely scum with no reasonable doubts, I think we still kill DW tonight.
If we mislynch today, we very well may be cooked if the Mafia doesn’t mess up really badly. They almost certainly know who Espy targeted by virtue of that fact that it’s who they failed to kill. (Only exception is if DW is Mafia Killer.) If we don’t lynch scum every day, chances that we don’t wake up in the morning are high. The inforoles can’t stop them from targeting Waffle if they win before the inforoles get to wake up and out them. -2 town ties us, and lynching 1 scum and losing 1 townie in the night doesn’t regain any ground.
If Persephone flips Mafia, we learn... absolutely nothing. (With the exception of the fact that her roleclaim stunk.) Tomorrow, we will still be faced with the Tanuki vs DW dilemma. Unless we prevented a kill, this is a second chance to fuck up and all die.
If we kill DW, we not only get a very likely scum death, we also get information. With the largest point of confusion in the game thus far resolved, it should be relatively smooth sailing to finish up. Still not easy, but much less perilous.
This is why I am going to Vote: DawningWinds today, with plans to vote Persephone tomorrow if nothing happens to change my plan during the night.
If Espy did save someone, I think DWs is scum. Nobody can confirm her townie roleblocker claim, because she chose to target a passive role twice instead of, y’know, the person who she should think is 100% beyond any reasonable doubt scum, who is also confirmed to be an active role.
So... why? It makes sense if DW is killer. She woke up and saw a failed kill. Claiming to have roleblocked me again is a very safe bet. It throws lots of suspicion onto me as Mafia Killer, and is extremely difficult to disprove. In fact the only way it could possibly be proven to not be what prevented the nightkill is if Tanuki roleblocked her and Equital targeted me or her with his scan... Which is exactly what happened.
Despite being a relatively safe play for the Mafia, it blew up on her. I was successfully confirmed innocent. (Honestly, iirc nobody can confirm her as any form roleblocker, so she could possibly be the killer herself, with Tanuki’s roleblock being the cause of the failed kill.)
Now, I don’t want to just look at reasons DWs is scum. After all, roleblocking me as a townie has one possible upside: it could’ve prevented the nightkill. Now, that’s nothing to scoff at, but it’s also not a compelling reason because of one significant downside: By preventing my being confirmed as anything, it muddies the waters in a way only beneficial to the mafia. Even if DW knew, beyond any possible doubt, that I was Mafia, all roleblocking me would do is stop me from digging my own grave and setting y’all up for the easiest scum lynching in mafia history. Debatably worth it as it stands, but since she can’t possibly think I’m 100% scum, townie DW would have to consider another possibility:
Blocking me if I am innocent is obviously a huge waste of everyone’s time, and worse, also has a significant chance of causing a third innocent lynch. Why not block who she would see as the obvious scum in Tanuki instead?
Ultimately, I can’t imagine why townie DW would possibly take the actions she claims to have taken tonight.
—
However, even if we all agree that DWs is totally scum, there’s also one other matter at hand: Her or Persephone? Both have scummy vibes. While Persephone’s new roleclaim, which means she wanted to be targeted by the Vig, does explain the borderline suicidal roleclaim. Fuse being Vig also explains why he completely dismissed the possibility of getting vigkilled last night. However, let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Persephone is 100% definitely scum with no reasonable doubts, I think we still kill DW tonight.
If we mislynch today, we very well may be cooked if the Mafia doesn’t mess up really badly. They almost certainly know who Espy targeted by virtue of that fact that it’s who they failed to kill. (Only exception is if DW is Mafia Killer.) If we don’t lynch scum every day, chances that we don’t wake up in the morning are high. The inforoles can’t stop them from targeting Waffle if they win before the inforoles get to wake up and out them. -2 town ties us, and lynching 1 scum and losing 1 townie in the night doesn’t regain any ground.
If Persephone flips Mafia, we learn... absolutely nothing. (With the exception of the fact that her roleclaim stunk.) Tomorrow, we will still be faced with the Tanuki vs DW dilemma. Unless we prevented a kill, this is a second chance to fuck up and all die.
If we kill DW, we not only get a very likely scum death, we also get information. With the largest point of confusion in the game thus far resolved, it should be relatively smooth sailing to finish up. Still not easy, but much less perilous.
This is why I am going to Vote: DawningWinds today, with plans to vote Persephone tomorrow if nothing happens to change my plan during the night.
Tanuki
Friend of All Chu
- Location
- Rhyme City
- Pronouns
- He/him/his
I can fully see the logic in DW blocking you, sorry. With a somewhat uncertain claim, blocking you in their mind might've been the closest they had to a reproducible variable in saving anyone from dying. While I don't really suspect you much at all personally, you were their best bet. They likely doubted roleblocking me would stop a death for the same reason I didn't roleblock them, and that's assuming both roleblockers are honest about their roles, but lying about their affiliation. I believe that was the prevailing theory for the most part.
I actually hadn't thought of this. My assumption was always that DW was just mafia roleblocker, but really nothing has corroborated that claim. They very well could be killer. The same somewhat goes for me with the caveat that, instead of being blocked by, uh, myself, it would have been the doctor that saved the victim last night.
This is why we either should not lynch today at all, or make 100% certain that whoever we lynch is mafia. I'm pushing the former.
Tanuki
Friend of All Chu
- Location
- Rhyme City
- Pronouns
- He/him/his
Even with this post calling for more death overall than mine, I really am having trouble reading Phan as scum. This plan sounds town, if misguided in my mind. I understand the logic behind it, but the critical flaw is simply in the numbers. We can not risk a mislynch today. If we kill an innocent today, we do not have the numbers to win.
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I'll try to discuss more after I get off work tomorrow, but right now I'm just giving some quick reads before I settle down for the night.
More or less ordered from least to most sus.
Probably town:
Equita - I think we all currently agree that Equita is the closest we have to a townlock.
Myself - Because of course I think I'm town.
Waffle - Since I saw Waffle interact with Equita last night. I feel relatively safe assuming that she's town. The alternative is that she's actually the mafia roleblocker and that maybe DW or Tanuki or Persephone is the killer but that seems less likely. Still something we might need to consider in the future.
Neutral:
Shiny Phantump - Equita saw "no result" on phant which suggests that either Equita was blocked, Phant didn't take an action, or that she's a passive role like she claimed. There's a possibility that one of Tanuki and DW are lying about who they blocked/being roleblocker or that phant didn't take an action to keep up a ruse. But both of those feel less likely.
SparklingEspeon - Although we can't ignore the possibility that she's scum and lying about her role, especially since Waffle more or less seems to be town as of right now, I feel like the other mafia players would have gotten onto her sooner if she was the killing role. Which makes me hesitant to vote her first if nothing else.
Leaning suspicious
Tanuki - I keep going back and forth on him. But his actions still feel fairly town. I do believe his claim that he blocked myself and equita on days one and two, respectively, but his current claim of blocking dw could theoretically be a ruse. But if DW flips scum, he's almost certainly town. And vice versa if DW flips town.
DawningWinds - Similar to Tanuki. Could be lying about who she targeted (possible but unlikely) or about her role (slightly more likely. The one person she's claimed to target has claimed a passive role. Either of them could be lying, but Phant's reaction to the chaos with Fuse yesterday felt much more like I'd expect out of Town!Phant. I could be wrong but...)
Persephone - Her role seems... very convoluted. And while it's certainly possible, I'm hesitant to believe it. I'm also hesitant to vote her out first though when, while she feels slightly more scummy, we have the chance of taking out someone who could theoretically block a heal.
I feel like there's more I want to say but I'm too tired to focus properly so I'll be back sometime tomorrow.
More or less ordered from least to most sus.
Probably town:
Equita - I think we all currently agree that Equita is the closest we have to a townlock.
Myself - Because of course I think I'm town.
Waffle - Since I saw Waffle interact with Equita last night. I feel relatively safe assuming that she's town. The alternative is that she's actually the mafia roleblocker and that maybe DW or Tanuki or Persephone is the killer but that seems less likely. Still something we might need to consider in the future.
Neutral:
Shiny Phantump - Equita saw "no result" on phant which suggests that either Equita was blocked, Phant didn't take an action, or that she's a passive role like she claimed. There's a possibility that one of Tanuki and DW are lying about who they blocked/being roleblocker or that phant didn't take an action to keep up a ruse. But both of those feel less likely.
SparklingEspeon - Although we can't ignore the possibility that she's scum and lying about her role, especially since Waffle more or less seems to be town as of right now, I feel like the other mafia players would have gotten onto her sooner if she was the killing role. Which makes me hesitant to vote her first if nothing else.
Leaning suspicious
Tanuki - I keep going back and forth on him. But his actions still feel fairly town. I do believe his claim that he blocked myself and equita on days one and two, respectively, but his current claim of blocking dw could theoretically be a ruse. But if DW flips scum, he's almost certainly town. And vice versa if DW flips town.
DawningWinds - Similar to Tanuki. Could be lying about who she targeted (possible but unlikely) or about her role (slightly more likely. The one person she's claimed to target has claimed a passive role. Either of them could be lying, but Phant's reaction to the chaos with Fuse yesterday felt much more like I'd expect out of Town!Phant. I could be wrong but...)
Persephone - Her role seems... very convoluted. And while it's certainly possible, I'm hesitant to believe it. I'm also hesitant to vote her out first though when, while she feels slightly more scummy, we have the chance of taking out someone who could theoretically block a heal.
I feel like there's more I want to say but I'm too tired to focus properly so I'll be back sometime tomorrow.
Shiny Phantump
Through Dream, I Travel
I don’t think the bit of extra info from a skipped night justifies the risk of doing nothing when we’re so close a game over. The Mafia Roleblocker can block Waffle and they probably know who Espy has committed to. We could try to get an info role to catch them in the act, but the kill itself is virtually guaranteed.
Shiny Phantump
Through Dream, I Travel
Correction: Mafia Roleblocker probably knows better than to target Waffle with a block due to Windskull. It’d be better just to risk the failed kill, since we’d have been throwing the night away anyways.
Tanuki
Friend of All Chu
- Location
- Rhyme City
- Pronouns
- He/him/his
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe @Equitia gets a different result if he or his target is blocked. This means Phan has to have not taken an action last night.
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Equita gets "no result" if he was blocked, if his target was passive, or if his target didn't take an action. He gets "unsuccessful" if his target was blocked. So the scenarios here are
1. Phant isn't passive but took no action.
2. Phant is passive
3. Waffle is not actually a doctor but the real mafia roleblocker and blocked equita.
- in this scenario, phant theoretically could have been the killer and targeted whoever espy protected, but this is an extremely convoluted theory
Tanuki
Friend of All Chu
- Location
- Rhyme City
- Pronouns
- He/him/his
Crackpot Theory:
We've been working under very limited assumptions on who is mafia. We appear to have it down to four suspects, which seems good, but that assumes Perse, Phan, and DW or myself contain all members of the mafia. If this isn't the case, we could be very screwed. That's why my proposed plan breaks if Perse or Phan flip innocent.
For this reason, I've decided to look into alternative possibilities, and the first one that came to mind made a lot more sense than I expected.
Espy is the killer, Wind is her partner. The reason nobody died night one was because Espy did not submit an action. When Espy did start submitting actions, Wind was well established as a watcher to then make it seemingly obvious that both of them are innocent. That assumption relies entirely on Wind's innocence.
The reason they wouldn't kill last night is because the status quo remains as they like it: with them out of the spotlight. If there are three, it could be they relied on Dawning to block Phan, and thus frame her for the lack of murder, but my roleblock combined with Equitia's watch put a chink in that nearly airtight conviction.
So, has Wind verified her role beyond what could already be deduced? If so, that doesn't necessarily make her innocent. Mafia has info-roles as well as access to info the Town doesn't.
While this tosses suspicion off myself in a sense, I'm more concerned with broadening our outlook on suspects. Feel free to poke holes in this theory; the less likely this is, the more confident we can be in Espy and Wind's innocence.
We've been working under very limited assumptions on who is mafia. We appear to have it down to four suspects, which seems good, but that assumes Perse, Phan, and DW or myself contain all members of the mafia. If this isn't the case, we could be very screwed. That's why my proposed plan breaks if Perse or Phan flip innocent.
For this reason, I've decided to look into alternative possibilities, and the first one that came to mind made a lot more sense than I expected.
Espy is the killer, Wind is her partner. The reason nobody died night one was because Espy did not submit an action. When Espy did start submitting actions, Wind was well established as a watcher to then make it seemingly obvious that both of them are innocent. That assumption relies entirely on Wind's innocence.
The reason they wouldn't kill last night is because the status quo remains as they like it: with them out of the spotlight. If there are three, it could be they relied on Dawning to block Phan, and thus frame her for the lack of murder, but my roleblock combined with Equitia's watch put a chink in that nearly airtight conviction.
So, has Wind verified her role beyond what could already be deduced? If so, that doesn't necessarily make her innocent. Mafia has info-roles as well as access to info the Town doesn't.
While this tosses suspicion off myself in a sense, I'm more concerned with broadening our outlook on suspects. Feel free to poke holes in this theory; the less likely this is, the more confident we can be in Espy and Wind's innocence.
Tanuki
Friend of All Chu
- Location
- Rhyme City
- Pronouns
- He/him/his
I'm using break in the c++ sense here. In the event that a function/basic computer process produces a certain result, the function self-terminates. This is overly reductive an explanation, but I wanted to make clear what I meant. It's not a fault in the strategy, but in fact a part of the larger Plan.
- Partners
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It's 1 am and I have work in seven hours so this is going to be brief and may be missing some things but more or less this is what we have from me.
Equita saw me unsuccessfully complete an action on N0, due to being blocked. Although this doesn't prove innocence, it does prove that I can't be the killing role I think.
For night 1 there's nothing to prove or disprove I actually watched DW other than my word.
For night 2 I claimed to see waffle interact with equita. Waffle verified as much after the fact. Which doesn't prove my innocence either, but does say that I'm either providing truthful information or that waffle and I are in cahoots as mafia
Espy is still a total mystery though and has no way to prove or disprove her actions afaik (which is part of why I listed her as neutral in my reads)